Credible forecasting lies at the heart of any significant capital programme. In particular, this must take account of the specific features of an airport or airline. Supported by generic forecasts provided by industry bodies, Pegasus Aviation Advisors analyses the future passenger and cargo numbers as critical drivers for revenue forecasts and CAPEX decisions.
A forecasting exercise will generally include at least the following:
- Base line data – segmented into key groups such as Leisure Visitors, Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR), Residents, Government, Business, Other – assessed over a minimum agreed period, taking account of demand shocks that may bias results
- Growth forecasts for each segment based on a propensity to travel analysis
- Seasonality analysis by segment
- Competitor airport data – passenger numbers, growth characteristics, and other factors
- Comparator airport analysis to support the output figures
- Sensitivity analyses on all key variables, to produce “High” and “Low” forecasts against defined assumptions
These forecasts may well be aligned to a Tourism Strategy or to support route development efforts by the airport.